This move wasn’t quite as smooth as the last time I tried; at least, when I tried to back up the whole site, move files & databases, I ran into issues.
When I exported all the posts & pages into a virgin install, it was very smooth. I do now have to look at all the plugins, but I probably had more than I really needed anyway. The theme’s still the same one, but I may change that, once I’ve got everything else working.